Simon's brother David also served as Treasurer of Tasmania in the 1990s. In Macnamara, the Liberal vote is consistently around 40%, and a Green victory hinges on the Greens passing Labor on first preferences, and then strong flows of Labor preferences putting the Green candidate ahead of the Liberal in the final count. A successful businesswoman, Bernadene has been a resident for 20 years in the electorate of Macnamara. It is important to maintain our roads before they become a costly problem. Council members also comprise three of the seven members of the Melbourne Airport Authority, which will overseea proposed $41 million budget next year. Liberal 30.69% 4. What they care about is what matters to me. Growth will continue in West Melbourne," Johnson said. Immediately below is the video of the event. ', Greek transport minister resigns over train crash; 36 dead, SoCal storm timeline: More snow, heavier rain expected Wednesday, Peoria police investigating shooting that left 1 dead at Circle K, One-On-One With WJZ: Baltimore Mayor Brandon Scott defends backing BGE Conduit deal, There's no shortage of salt for NYC roads. The graph of first preference votes below shows rising Green support at the expense of Labor, a pattern repeated in many inner-Melbourne electorates. Globally the pollsters, in 2022, have been consistently overestimating social democratic support and underestimating Green support. The city of more than 28,000 residents has a $50 million budget, and is set to complete its own water plant in December 2026. Greens definitely over performed in Prahran. Holloway had won a shock victory over Prime Minister Stanley Bruce in the seat of Flinders in 1929, before moving to the much-safer Melbourne Ports in 1931. If that happens, they win. The only way that I cant see Labor winning here is if all the cards fall the right way for the Greens and that doesnt often happen. He represented workers and their unions while a partner at Slater and Gordon, holding a position with the firm previously held by Julia Gillard. The other three members of the City Council Mayor Hal Rose, and Councilors Pat Bentley, Daniel McDow and Stephen Phrampus have terms that run until 2024. I post on my regular Andrea Young Facebook and I frequently post on my localNextdoor.comwebsite. 2018 State Election: A Meet the Candidates for the lower house seat of Albert Park was held at 6pm, on Tuesday, 30th October in the Boyd Community Hub. It will make a massive difference in how the Albanese government is seen. i would part of the story here is that the Libs overperfomed in Elite areas such as Albert Park compared to May. Get breaking news alerts directly to your phone with our app, Josh Burns retains Labor's grip on inner Melbourne seat. The moderator was Bernadene Voss, a two-term Councillor and three-time Mayor in the City of Port Phillip. The second last exclusion (UAP) is what leapfrogged the Liberals from 3rd to 1st and eliminated the Greens. Berth locations and shipping agents' contact details, below. Consequently, sample ballots in different jurisdictions in the same state may not be . Save my name, email, and website in this browser for the next time I comment. Labors primary votes in all three of these electorates went backwards which should set Red flags in Labor HQ. The Greens could very easily gain this seat if Albanese turns out to be a disappointment and if the looming redistribution removes Caulfield and adds South Yarra and Prahran. Most of the candidates attended. Regional Victorian ports - follow this link. Election results in Macnamara at the 2019 federal election Toggle between two-party-preferred votes and primary votes for the Liberal Party, Labor and the Greens. The Greens are also targetting this seat with the goal of overtaking Labor and winning. The Greens topped the primary vote in St Kilda, with the Liberal Party a distant third. Ultimately it will come down to the mix of late and early pre-E-Day voting. [1] It also had a large gay and lesbian community. In 2018, I pledged to work toward a healthy Indian River Lagoon. Essential, Roy Morgan and Resolve Strategic were all well within MoE, while Newspoll-You Gov and Ipsos were right on the edge of an acceptable MoE, some would say over for Labour. First, the trend occurred first in Melbourne before it was followed in Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports and Higgins. 0:36. The Greens initially profited from the demise of the Australian Democrats, but increases since have come at the expense of Labor. The Melbourne City Council includes a mayor, a vice mayor and five council members. I project the following based on whats left to count: LIB 33.5% ALP Just over 33.3% GRN Just under 33.2%. On the Macnamara count, Kevin Bonhams blog of its post-election count says his model projects PVs of: Labor 30.3 Greens 30.2 Liberal 29.7. Full distribution of preferences was just released in a zip file according to Poll Bludger, I downloaded it and had a look then. Wills ( ALP 8.5% v GRN) is the seat for former Labor Prime Minister Bob Hawke and runs north-west between Merri Creek and Moonee Ponds Creek from inner-city Brunswick to the Western Ring Road. LIB 30,636 2. Harkin undertook secondary schooling was at Presentation College, Windsor, where she was an avid debater and State finals speaker). This is a mathematical certainty that labour will be in top two primary count. Antony Green is the ABC's Chief Elections Analyst. Australia 2010 Australia 2013 Australia 2016 Australia 2019 Australia 2022 By-election Candidate numbers City of Brisbane Covid-19 Data . Crean served as Treasurer for the first two years of the Whitlam government, but was pushed aside in late 1974 in the midst of difficult economic times, and moved to the Trade portfolio. This will not onlyprovide tax savings, it will allow for a more equitable taxation of the residents of West Melbourne. Also disagree with you Dan M. It is completely misleading to analyse the Labor Albert Park Margin and Caulfield Margin considering that Balaclava, St Kilda and other areas are in the Caulfield electorate (fairly progressive electorates). In early 2022, the Victorian Government asked the Department to convene the Container . Incredibly close, basically meaning minor preference flows could eliminate any one of the 3, especially since 4 of the minors are right wing and Labor are likely to get the least minor preferences. Either way this might be the last seat to be called because it wont even be mnown who the two-party count is between until a full distribution of preferences, and all 3 combinations are possible. I would argue if they preferenced the cookers last and Michael OBrien was the leader they would have done better here. Conservatives doing better on postals isnt always the case in progressive seats. These kinds of investments drive responsible growth, reduce traffic and support efficient response times for law enforcement and emergency services. Port Melbourne - at 13 February 2023. Candidate Johnson said he planned on focusing on the citys continued upward trending growth. Patreons analysis is on the money and there could actually be up to 6500 votes left if more postals are received (the last batch actually did break 26 LIB, 29 ALP, 33 GRN, 12 OTH which is enough to keep the Liberals ahead of Labor). Continue work on West Melbourne flooding issues. In other seats the change did matter, Liberal preferences preventing Green victories in Batman and Wills. The 4PP results were: 1. Theres an estimated 6500 ballots left to count, and if they continue to break the same way they currently are, and Covid votes also favour the Greens, they will be on track to erase that deficit, while the strong preference flow to the Libs also keeps them ahead of Labor, dropping Labor to third place. Because 500 votes separated the Greens from Labor, and in all seats covering Macnamara, the Greens had an increase in primary votes, 8% in Prahran, 4% in Albert Park, and even 1.1% in Caulfield with a teal running. 2018 Mayoral Election: A Meet the Candidates was held at Boyd Community Hub on Thursday, 26th April, 2018. Redistribution Macnamara lost Windsor to Higgins. Geography Inner south of Melbourne. On paper the final boundaries have minimal impact on Labor's margin, nudging it down a percentage from 6.2% to 4.9%. Political/government/civic experience: West Melbourne city councilwoman since November 2009 and current deputy mayor, Chairman of the Space Coast Transportation Planning Organization since 2019, Member and current vice chair, Brevard County Tourist Development Council since 2018, 2021 president of the Space Coast League of Cities, Board member of the Metropolitan Planning Organization and board member of theMetropolitan Planning Organization Advisory Council, Board member of the Florida League of Cities Land Use and Economic Development, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links: I dont have a specific Facebook page for my campaign. GRN 30,291. ), meaning any 2CP combination is still possible. The LIB/ALP 2PP here will be Labors best since before Caulfield was in the seat and the Lib PV may be the lowest in 5-6 decades. Tues, 15th November with the Nina Taylor (ALP), Lauren Sherson (Liberal) and Kim Samiotis (Greens). Rob McCathie ( Liberal Democrats) Ben Schultz ( Animal Justice) Steph Hodgins-May ( Greens) Jane Hickey ( United Australia) Assessment Macnamara has been under threat from the Liberal Party in the past, but it's unlikely the Liberal Party could win in the current environment. Supporting the mayor's momentum of accountability by voting with the mayor for regular financial audits of city finances. In 2016, Labor actually suffered a primary vote swing of four percent and a two-party swing of two percent even as it nearly reduced the Coalition to minority government nationally. The electorate includes the suburbs of Port Melbourne, South Melbourne, Middle Park, South Yarra, St Kilda, Balaclava, Elwood and parts of Elsternwick and Caulfield. He grew up in Melbourne's western suburbs delivering newspapers to help his working-class family with a bit of extra income while he gained his accountant's diploma. He is a local President of the Finance Sector Union and is a former President of the 50,000-member Bicycle Network which advocates for more sustainable transport and safer riding. As shown by the plot of first preference vote, the Greens have replaced Labor as the major left party in the electorate of Melbourne. Labor won a large 70.2% majority of the two-party-preferred vote in St Kilda, 55% in Caulfield and 57.5% in Port Melbourne. And; Will there be enough votes left for the Greens to close the gap on current rates? Poll Bludger has not called it for Labor, they have actually said the odds are most likely leaning against them now. It is named for the fact that, at the time of its creation, it was centred on Port Melbourne and Williamstown, both major ports. Canadian airline coming: Sunwing Airlines to launch service from Melbourne to three Canadian cities in December, New police headquarters: Melbourne leaders dedicate $32 million police headquarters to force's lone fallen officer, Occupation:Realtor, private investigator, process server, notary, Education:Course study of sociology, with a concentration in forensic psychology, at Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, Political/government/civic experience:911 dispatcher; Space Coast Young Republicans; NAACP Legal Redress Team; attends Melbourne Police Community Relations Council meetings; 18th District process server, Campaign email:rachael4melbourne@gmail.com, Website, Facebook, other social media pages/links:rachael4melbourne.com;Facebook: Rachael Bassett for Melbourne City Council. Support local journalism. The Greens would have got 32% in May but only got 20% of November. . Daniel, Poll Bludger hasnt called the seat. 1422 are remaining and they are breaking 24.8% LIB, 27.9% ALP, 34.2% GRN, 13.2% Other. Second Issue: Economic development. Additionally, I made a promise to focus on jobs. If we consider that there was no minor right wing parties such as LDP and FFV running in 2018 state election there was actually a small increase in the right-wing vote. I was thinking Mcnamara was a certain Labor retain at least on Election night but at this stage I think Greens would be favourites to win Mcnamara. Preferences from fourth & further candidates total 21.8%, but 14% is with right wing groups which favoured Liberals over Labour over Greens strongly in 2019. The only seat that is in-doubt in my mind is Gilmore which is likely to go Liberal. Mathews was succeeded in 1931 by Jack Holloway. Further, I will continueto support the creation of a West Melbourne Fire Department. The Greens have a ridiculously small margin of error for it to not work out for them. Assume no leap in turnout leaves 8 792 votes remaining to be counted, less 6.44% informal rate (566 votes) = 8 226 votes;- are not sufficient from which Green & Liberals can find 8 295 primary votes. Other suburbs include Elwood, Balaclava, Elsternwick, Ripponlea, Middle Park, Albert Park and South Melbourne. This due to running a more centrist campaign including accepting climate targets, not running on African Gangs etc. Campaign Email: diana@dianaforcouncil.com, Campaign Facebook page: Facebook.com/DianaForWestMelbourne. Immediately below is the video of the event. Regional Victorian ports - follow this link . When this site was originally published, the post-redistribution margin for Macnamara was listed as 6.1%. Macnamara covers the port of Melbourne, St Kilda and Caulfield. It includes vmost of the City of Melbourne north of the Yarra, almost all of the City of Yarra, and a small slice of Moreland Council. 2019 Federal Election: A Meet the Candidates for the House of Representatives seat of Macnamara, formerly Melbourne Ports, . To date, we can boastOrion180 (300 jobs), Northrop Grumman (400 to 600 jobs), and creating less government for our small-business owners. Macnamara was a medical researcher and doctor who discovered there was more than one type of the polio virus and worked extensively with children suffering from poliomyelitis, training doctors and physiotherapists in the management of the disease. To date, I have been instrumental in working with our Tallahassee representatives to bring back $3 million-plus for water projects to Melbourne. West Melbourne is building our own water plant, and now were talking about having our own fire stations. Greens 31.50% 3. 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