The short-tempered outburst by Senator Palmer on the Australian Broadcasting Corporation Q&A program, to be sure was just that, an outburst. This is where I place Australia with regard to China (providing it stays on its current foreign policy/policies pathway). In the meantime China will continue to invade Australia from an economic perspective and this will have a triad attached: to enable China to exert influence on regional strategic partnerships; to establish China and A-P multilateral deals that actively encourage the use of the Renminbi (sometimes called the Yuan), as a source of collateral; and to pro-actively downgrade Australia-US military commitments and partnerships. Dear Jaquie, please define what you consider to be statesmanship. It is at this point that the historical element as well as the dangers for other actors particularly Australia in the A-P region and the invasion scenario to which Lambie alludes can be introduced. From this point it is obvious that if China were able to establish a greater military presence in Indonesia exercising control over Australia would be more able to be achieved although this would more likely be the strangulation of access to shipping- and air-traffic in the region, regardless of whether it is military or mercantile, as this tactic would essentially render Australia fiscally and militarily decapitated in the region. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. Australians must never forget how the 14 conditions delivered to Australia by China would change this nation forever. @ stephengb: I cannot hep wondering why discussions about taxation. Strategically, Washingtons reliability as a security guarantor is the core of the issue. This has been done with unconditional fiscal contributions (loans). The island of about 25 million people, backed by the US and Japan, broke away from the mainland in 1949 when the losers of its civil war fled Mao Zedong's brutal communist regime. Once again the making of such a statement can be given credence by observing that America is fiscally bankrupt to China, and owes the PRC trillions of dollars and the US would simply not risk China calling in its debt/s as this would devastate the US domestic economy. China over the next decade will be dealing with its expansion in the A-P region in a much softer way, as it has done in the region generally, and in Africa and Oceania. In March, Adm. Philip Davidson, the head of US Indo-Pacific Command at. A new survey released Tuesday by the Lowy Institute, a foreign policy research group, found only a slim majority of Australians supported military action in the event of a Chinese invasion of . A significant part of the reason the rise of China, and the subsequent actions of the PRC government have become so chilling, and the reason the invasion word was used by Senator Lambie, is twofold. A superior military air force could, in effect, control all of Western Australias resources in the Pilbara and the North West Shelf gas reserves.. In accomplishing such occupations and political tenets, the West has been able to decree the way in which the world aside from the Russian Federation and China must operate. Sheesh if only they had known the brakes were off and the war machine would just keep rolling along. [11] GALLUPWorld. The evidence is Americas slow reaction to commenting on and having a greater involvement in the South China Sea tensions in a more immediate manner which is in direct contrast to its role in the Cold War years. China will be a vastly different case to what the West has previously encountered and then dominated, as it has adopted the Wests interests in being a regional as well as global controller and therefore the case of China is completely different than what has gone before in the power-stakes of the twentieth century. Thankyou for your comments, very robust and informative for me. Something went wrong, please try again later. Its how you play with your mind not weapons that matters. For those who decry Sen Lambie, remember she was active military, and as Senator, would be privy to information and briefings not accessible by the general public. Try again. Their is a greater chance of Having a War with Japan again then ever having one with China. Signed sealed and yet to deliver. Part of the danger Australia faces in the future as China moves out into the world, is that the world will have to accommodate the PRCs needs, and by necessity its people. You can upload: image, , video, , spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, , . Based on history, a war is in the making. Firstly, China has insufficient capacity to wage long distance assault operations. Sydney: Murdoch Press. Despite its massive standing force, including noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, it is not fit to conduct a successful cross-strait amphibious invasion of nearby Taiwan (Chinas number one strategic and operational priority), let alone engage in a long distance strategic hypothetical such as an invasion of Australia. What am I missing? As the late ex-PM, Mr Fraser warned us, dont count on America in saving Australia, from an potential attack from China, America can no longer even save itself ! Sociologist Steven Pinker has demonstrated that in fact violence has been reducing over the millenia. Just buy the bastards and their debt out. Offensive strike can be interpreted as a series of limited or larger scale prolonged long-distance kinetic and cyber offensive actions, conducted remotely. Dr. Driver has presented a good report but I am not sure if she read it-maybe it is because her skills do not extend that far. But the YouTube video has been met with criticism from experts. The Battle of Guadalcanal (ie, Solomon Islands) between August 1942 and February 1942 was the first major land offensive undertaken by the Allied forces, including Australia and the US, against Japan, resulting in over 26,000 deaths and the loss of 57 warships and almost 1,300 aircraft. The largest ever Australian warship sunk in battle, HMAS . For Russia, China and India this looks like a win/win. Long March Out of China. The Australian, Melbourne: Murdoch Media, 19 August, 2014, 9. The problems that will influence the US lack of enthusiasm to intervene in the A-P will range from the sheer distance from the US and of it being a China-controlled environment; intractable domestic and regional dealings with Mexico and the South Americas associated with drugs, migration and political trends; the combined economic, geo-political and in some cases geo-strategic influences of what has become colloquially known as the BRICS, (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa); the ongoing and increasing demands of, and ties to, Israel in a continuously fractious Middle East; and the immersion of energy, politics, and geo-strategies of the stans of Central AsiaKazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. China has been quick to capitalise on this with gaining deeper connections with Indonesia. One thing is for sure, China does not need to invade Australia. Britain robustly expanded beyond its own borders often usurping other nation-states, frequently through violence and colonisation in order to gain what it needed. Copyright The Australian Independent Media Network 2014-2022 ABN: 44313698183. Washington DC think-tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies established its Australia Chair this week. This factor, in the first instance is where there are ongoing and developing difficulties. Your contribution to help with the running costs of this site will be gratefully accepted. We are at no immediate risk of invasion nobody in the region has anything like the force projection capability required to put tens of thousands of set of boots anywhere of strategic value on our land mass, let alone sustain the supply chain long enough to sustain even a brief campaign. Ill give a dollar to anyone who actually read all that. On 23 April this year, Chinese President Xi Jinping showed off the PLA Navy's production capacity by commissioning at a single ceremony the Hainan amphibious assault ship, the Changzheng-18 nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine, and the Dalian destroyer. Overall, this has been successful as poverty has fallen from 26% in 2007 to 7% in 2012. Thats the bizarre claim used in a political advert from the United Australia Party. November 9, 2021, 6:22 AM. The heretofore hidden fears that reside alongside the mercantile arena of profit and the food bowl debates within the Asia-Pacific (A-P) have evolved into the public arena. Hence, China will, like the Spanish, French, British and Americans before it, have to use extramural preponderance to get what it needs for its populace. Chinas Per-Capita GDP has Led to a Drastic Reduction in Poverty., http://www.gallup.com/poll/166565/one-five-worldwide-living-extreme-poverty.aspx, [12] Jemima Garrett and staff. Dr Strobe Driver reports. On the other side of the ledger we have people who deride any concerns as alarmist, the fish bowl syndrome. War is a fools game and China knows it. But its most chilling claim is around a small airport built in West Australias remote northwest. The question of fuel deposits, which has to be replenished regularly, remains. Tensions between Australia and its biggest trading partner, China, drastically deteriorated last year when Prime Minister Scott Morrison called for an independent inquiry into the origins of. The present Lambie redneck doctrine of Invasion by China or Indonesia harks back to Menzies and his yellow peril election Arrows and like the Menzies arrows Lambies redneck doctrine is just a ploy to stay elected. The US, their nemesis in the Great Game, is diminished. As the decade toward 2025 grinds on the massive influence China will have will cause the displacement of Australias and as such, the Chinese will not automatically accept Australias definitions of how the A-P should be controlled: this will cause problems. This was followed by a further dictum from his colleague Senator Jacqui Lambie speaking about the potential of a Chinese invasion and whats more, she has refused to withdraw her comment. The Xiaoping era would be the first quantum leap into a globalized world and would signal significant domestic and international changes this was defined by Xiaoping as socialism with a Chinese character.[9] China was essentially, thrust into a Western world and it would over time exploit the free market, gain international political astuteness, and in the late-1990s, begin to stamp its geo-strategic authority on the world: the A-P region is its first port-of-call. Central banks and trading firms that now hold 60% of their reserves in dollar-denominated bonds would have to rebalance by converting dollars to those other currencies. Geography still plays a very important part in war. Power Disparities and Paradoxical Conflict Outcomes. International Interactions, Philadelphia: Taylor and Francis, 1986,12, 315-342. Similarly, the PLAs Airborne Corps lack air lift capacity for long distance air assault operations. And correspondingly, where to place the US? Military Invasion alert after China crosses line. In short, Senator Lambies outburst is largely accurate, premature perhaps, but based on British and American preponderance, accurate nevertheless. Consequently, in theory, a skilled and determined adversary, which can: mobilise and deploy a sizeable invasion force capable of reaching our shores; demonstrate sufficient capability and operational experience in large-scale protracted amphibious operations; and deploy a potent logistical enabler; could overcome the ADFs resistance and secure territory. The PLAN is still in the process of mastering out-of-area major battle group deployments. But is it? Hint, you have to disregard your sordid trainwreck of conceit and bile and adopt a viewpoint removed from spiteful recriminations. The shock of this state-of-affairs resides in Western nation-states and Western European-centric nations Australia and America, and to some extent Japan are included is included in this mix have been privy to, over the past several centuries is watching the slow but sure rise of Western Europe as a force. As Europe became a force it has incrementally been able to dictate its version of what government and governance should comprise of to the rest of the world. I mightily admire Peter Singer however if you take a look internationally things are moving in a crazy variety of directions all at once. "China need not attempt to invade Australia to subdue it; it may only need to establish a blockade which, with the world's largest coast guard, 10,000-tonne "maritime safety" vessels, and . http://www.hup.harvard.edu/catalog.php?isbn=9780674055445. All of these instances have had the enduring effect of proving Western liberal-democracy is the most venerable and robust of all governments and governance. One upshot of her comment/s is that the military rise of China is now out in the public sphere and the massive impact this will have on Australia is finally beyond the hallways of the Department of Defence in Canberra. "Our judgement at least is that (China's . 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Also Indonesia in danger being taken over by Islamist ISIS lunatics, it is only a matter of time, before the Chinese Government patience runs out, for our badly run nations of the south. As the middle-classes of China begin to demand their perceived and/or actual rights, the PRC government will have to succumb to their demands, if only for enhanced domestic stability. New York: Free Press, 1992. Now, try to find out where all our Gold and other more precious commodities have been going and then why our Conservative US backed Governments have sold out our Reserves? particularly June Bullivant. I thought, Censorship is never innocent, made worse for its strained good intentions. However, the relevant issue is invasions gain results which inevitably have to be repelled, defused or accepted. The two-minute-long advert suggests that the Chinese government has been working with Australian politicians in buying businesses on the countrys shores. For, In the world of Deputy Opposition Leader Sussan Ley, the Albanese Governments, From African gang violence to persecuted white South African farmers, Peter Dutton. You can upload: image, audio, video, document, spreadsheet, interactive, text, archive, code, other. Note: Dr Alexey Muraviev isAssociate Professor of National Security and Strategic Studies at Curtin University. Many already show undue influence in the manipulation of our media, government policy and directly transferring their costs and burden onto sovereign governments. [9] Ezra Vogel. Hence, it can attack Australia by means of a sophisticated cyber offensive campaign, even without a formal declaration of hostile intent. For peace to come about either locally or globally, a major reappraisal of Language and all the edifices of modern life are called into question. Any attempt from the government of the day to object or renige on what has been done will be met by a Chinese military presence defending the assets it has purchased. Former airforce pilot in CHILLING warning over airstrip AN AIRSTRIP in the arid Australian desert could be used for a full-scale invasion from China. Selling more and more of our assets (mineral companies and FREEHOLD farming land) is moving the country to a checkmate position with China controling its assets. When Australia had the temerity to call for an independent inquiry into the origins of COVID-19 last year, China was incensed. We have been and unfortunately probably will continue to sell it to them. This is the real war. Enter your email address to subscribe to The AIMN and receive notifications of new posts by email. And moreover, it has used force in the process of making nations adhere to Western principles. Also I have no understanding at all of international politics. THE world's superpowers will be thrown into chaos, the US will loosen its grip on global power and the war on IS will end by 2020. The relative ease of attacking mainland Australia comes from the geographical distribution of our major industrial and population centres, which are located within Australias littoral. By Dr Alexey Muraviev | Analysis | 2 September 2021, Sovereign Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, noticeable improvements to its amphibious assault element, trains regularly and takes its inspiration from, open confrontation with the United States, Advertise with Australian Defence Magazine, Advertise with the Defence Industry Guide. Historical Statistics. In doing so it is important to differentiate an attack from an offensive strike. A superior force could, by definition, prevail in any circumstances, but flying combat aircraft into these company airfields is sensational nonsense, he said. 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